Insights by Anthony Beiler, President of Beiler-Campbell Realtors & Appraisers, Anvil Land Transfer and Delaware Valley Financial Mortgage, LLC

2018 REFECTION

For an accurate picture of the real estate market we must widen the lens several years. While home sales dropped nationwide in 2018 a few percentage points from last year, the overall picture shows steady growth. Considering 2017 was the highest in home sales in a decade, it is not surprising that 2018 finished a few points lower. Still, the 2018 real estate market finished above the spike of 2009. Statistically, it is a small flinch in the data and a very mild adjustment compared to the long-term growth over the past years.
 

NATIONAL CLOSED HOME SALES



Graph source: Economic & Housing Outlook by Lawrence Yun Ph.D. Chief Economist NAR 11/2/18

2018 REFECTION ON THE LOCAL MARKET

2018 brought tight inventory that created an urgency in buyers to act quickly. This dynamic demanded that agents be responsive, capable and knowledgeable in order to meet the pace of transactions. I'm happy to report that here in our offices, 2018 brought a 10% increase in home sales volume over last year. Our continued growth is attributed to our skilled agents who have the support of a management and administrative team with extensive experience. Unmatched market knowledge has resulted from our 45 years of business growth. Our management team is heavily engaged in the real estate industry and local commerce which creates opportunity and insight that benefits our entire team.
 

LOCAL CLOSED VOLUME


Data source: Bright MLS closed volume Jan 1 - Nov 30, 2018 compared to Jan 1 - Nov 30, 2017

2019 OUTLOOK

Looking forward to 2019, I expect sales to remain stable and exhibit mild growth nationally and locally. Home prices should increase on pace with 2018 and interest rates should have a modest uptick as well. Inventory will remain tight keeping buyers and agents on their toes and prepared to bring strong offers. Overall, the economy is good resulting from a stable job market. This will support the housing market, even as interest rates rise. Lawrence Yun, NAR  Cheif Economist, predicts 2019 to bring a 1% increase in home sales and the national median existing-home price to rise around 3% from 2018.

Barring any unforeseen events, I agree with Yun when he refutes speculation that we are experiencing a bubble. "The current market conditions are fundamentally different than what we were experiencing before the recession 10 years ago," said Yun. "Most states are reporting stable or strong market conditions, housing starts are under-producing instead of over-producing and we are seeing historically low foreclosure levels, indicating that people are living within their means and not purchasing homes they cannot afford. This is a stronger, more stable market compared to the loosely regulated market leading up to the bust."

Closer to home, I anticipate 2019 to be another year of growth at Beiler-Campbell Realtors. As our skilled agents and support staff join with our management team, there is not a challenge we can’t navigate. I look forward to 2019 with optimism and excitement! 

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